1 - A win for the shareholders of U.S. oil companies, close to half of which aren’t even Americans, but not a win for Americans even on a purely financial basis given that they are paying more for gas and food.
2 - China hasn’t lost its source of gas and oil. They have more reserves than the rest of the world put together and can outlast every other country, and they’re still getting shipments.
3 - The exact opposite of reality. Iran’s potential to acquire nuclear weapons was one of their biggest dangers for the rest of the world. But with this the U.S. has given Iran a new actual power that had been conjectured but never realized. Control over 20% of the world’s fuel supply and large percentages of other critical raw materials.
You don’t permanently remove 20% of the worlds oil, 30% of the fertilizer while having a incredibly financialized economy and somehow get on the other side of it healthy and rich.
For one, this would be the end of the Petrodollar and with it the ability to have huge trade deficits siphoning more than 1 trillion in goods and services from the rest of the world in exchange for fancy green paper.
3 - Iran moderates are neutralized, so hardcore fanatics from IRGC take over. Loss for literally everybody.
Otherwise, 1) and 2) are true, Europe is bleeding through the nose with buying US oil and depending on its current antagonist, not smart long term situation that we need to move away asap.
Somebody in US government is making literal billions on shorts and various trade deals just before major announcements keep happening, those are not that hard to see in markets. Current top public bet on this is trumps family and his close coworkers, and their families. If you ever want a witch hunt on traitors and collaborators against US citizens and society, smart up, forget Wall street and just follow those money very directly to culprits.
Please link to Islamic Republic/Shia religious leadership statements that they have repealed the hijab/modesty rules and have disbanded the basiji Islamic morality police and ordered modesty laws/rules/requirements are no longer in effect/no longer to be enforced.
However I do applaud the brave Iranian women who act in defiance of their theocratic Shia oppressors. It's great to see freedom winning, isn't it? Sadly a lot of brave Iranians died/suffered to get to this point, but the current situation can easily be pulled back by the oppressive Iranian theocratic regime.
That’s what the propaganda you’ve been fed since a child tells you.
The real crazy savages are not it Tehran but in TelAviv and Washington.
The Iranians are just defending themselves from monsters who still think civilized people nukes and napalms civilian population, finance Latin American and African dictatorships and torture, etc.
According to a declassified CIA memo citing a classified U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee report, the CIA played a significant role in establishing SAVAK, providing both funding and training. The organization became notorious for its extensive surveillance, repression, and torture of political dissidents. The Shah used SAVAK to arrest, imprison, exile, and torture his opponents, leading to widespread public resentment. This discontent was leveraged by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, then in exile, to build popular support for his Islamic philosophy.
If you took the time to read the US Department of State’s annual report, Country Reports on Terrorism, you would find out that the major perpetrators of terrorism are Sunni groups, not Iran nor groups allegedly sponsored by Iran. The funding for Sunni groups comes mostly from Gulf countries that are considered allied to the US: Qatar, UAE, Saudi Arabia.
The most prolific terrorist groups in the last decade has been ISIS and their satellites, followed most of the time by groups such as The Taliban, Al-Shabaab, Maoist/Communist Party of India, Bloch Liberation Army, Haftar, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham and other group with ZERO relationship with Iran.
It is only more recently, than Hezbollah, Ansar Allah and Hamas has been show with more proeminence in US Department of State compilation. But this is a bit complicate, because at least for Hezbollah and Ansar Allah, it is clear that they engage more with Israeli military targets, congruent with you would expect from nationalist liberation movements.
Other than the October 7th, Hamas also had stopped attacks against civillians since they took power in Gaza around 2005, and even in the October 7th we need to separate fact from israeli propaganda, as it could be argued that it was mostly an operation to kidnap Israeli soldiers to exchange with palestine prisoners in negotiations, and that a lot of the civilian deaths were caused by the reaction of the IDF itself, applying the hanibal doctrine, something you can easily do by reading Israeli newspaper such as the Haaretz. Remove the comically fake atrocity propaganda lies about supposed mass rapes and babies in ovens, and it is not that different from IRAs action against british forces in the 70s.
And no America is not bad. America did a lot of good to the world also besides the bad things. All the world used to admire and try to emulate america, I don't know a single person who have lived in America who doesn't have good things to say about the American people But... America has a big problem with an absolutely out-of-control military-inteligence-corporate subterranean parallel state, with an absolutely suicidal best-ally and a thoroughly incompetent president and war secretary.
Hamas personally were so proud of kidnapping random Israeli's they recorded videos of themselves doing it and uploaded it to the Internet. We were all forced to see videos of grandmothers held hostage. The little girl kidnapped by armed men was the one that broke me the most. There were no Israeli's holding grandmas (later found executed) hostage in those videos Hamas members released. There were no Israeli's kidnapping that little girl. And those were the videos I couldn't get away from on my timeline. There are MANY MANY MORE that discredited the narrative you are trying to craft. And they were all PROUDLY recorded and shared online for the world to see by Hamas.
The peaceful daughters mother's and sisters protest you think happened resulting in thousands of people killed were really men with machine guns backed by the CIA and Israel trying to give Trump justification for invading.
That is not what the videos that came out showed. Of course, now Iran has shudown the internet so information can not get in out.
Spin harder.
The truth is after the start of this war Iran has been importing Shia militias members from Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan to be their enforcers because the Islamic regime does not have legitimacy with the Iranian populace.
According to the Iranian regime all killed were Iranian:
"It described all those killed as “children of this soil” and affirmed President Masoud Pezeshkian’s commitment to protecting and vindicating their rights."
And even the regime could only figure out how to label a subset of them as 'rioters and terrorists':
"A government statement issued in late January indicated that over 600 of the deceased were rioters and terrorists, with the remainder being civilians and security forces."
Leaving 2400 being random civilians. (if we believe the government list is actually a complete list).
You are incorrect. There are many women/children listed as killed while they were attending protests that Iran admits to having attacked and made games about on national TV:
You realize that those dead people on the government list leave behind families/friends/social media profiles that all know/show they just wanted more freedom?
The regime says "the total number of fatalities was 3,117". They then state "A government statement issued in late January indicated that over 600 of the deceased were rioters and terrorists, with the remainder being civilians and security forces."
That leaves quite a few civilians murdered by the Iranian regime. 2,517. Murdered. Non-CIA. Non-rioters. Non-terrorists. Civilians. Murdered. By their own government. Here are the faces a few of the 2,517 the regime admits they murdered:
https://www.bbc.com/persian/resources/idt-c005edd8-7204-4c74...
here are the names of a few of the children that were murdered
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Children_killed_during_the_Jan...
I do not claim either are exhaustive lists, they are simply a few of the many victims (2,517 according to the Iranian regimes official position).
We haven't even talked about the 42,486 total arrests the regime made (which could not possibly all be CIA). 42,486 total arrests feels very secret police/repressive like the SAVAK of the 1950s.
Your responses again and again aimed at me such as "using critical thinking." are in pretty severe violation of the HN guidelines. It's best to speak to what is being said, not to make malicious statements/judgements at those you disagree with.
That's where we find the 146 out of 6,000. If you don't agree with those numbers you shouldn't be using that link to state the case that many families were killed.
Now you start including random stats.. did you know there were 6 times more people arrested. BBC says x.. trying to change the goalposts by not even mentioning families killed which was the entire discussion. You got fooled by AI so did the media. Great writeup how they did it. No amount of changing goalposts will change that fact. How many fewer mother's day cards were sent or how many potholes Iran has now isn't going to change you got fooled by AI. We were see more of this in the future as AI bots will double down like you did when presented with facts.
From the same link: "A total of 11,280 cases remain under review.". Again, these numbers are not exhaustive, the numbers from the regime are the 100% verified numbers from the regime so that we don't get lost in 'but we can't trust the news/the human rights orgs/it's all AI/you were tricked'. That the government definitively murdered over 100 children (with the final total potentially being more) is shocking and confirmed by Iran. Your joke that only over a 100 families won't receive mothers day cards seems really poor taste and proves your statement it was only CIA agents with machine guns false. 100 families without children because the government murdered them in a very short timeframe is horrific.
You keep ignoring 2,517 civilians murdered. For a fact according to the Iranian regime murdered. 2,517 confirmed civilians according to Iran. Not confirmed by AI. Confirmed by the Iranian government.
I did not try to change the goal posts at all. I simply highlighted we are talking about a small subset when we talk about the confirmed information. And the fact (according to the Iranian regime) is it was not just men with guns gunned down but at a minimum, according to the Iranian regime itself, 2,517 civilians murdered.
This subset gallery contains "“children of this soil” of Iran, according to Iranian officials, that the Iranian government (not AI) listed as having murdered.
You seem to want to debate away the official government murder toll and use AI as some sort of shield. I conceded to you that for further discussion we will limits totals to Iranian regime confirmed numbers so as to remove any doubt, question, prevent the THOUSANDS of definitively proven lives taken get lost in a pointless she said she said 'it's AI' and simply use the official state totals.
I'd be curious to know what people think would happen if the US decided they want their government gone. The most obvious strategy is to start internet and social media campaigns first (of which the US have complete control), and second step is to fund and arm "rebels" who are willing to conquer the state from inside and hand it over to the US on a silver plate. Complete deniability, no official war declaration, no domestic debate. And if the targeted country blocks the internet or shoots the "rebels", then the entire Western press can denounce that government as an illiberal, ferocious entity that censors information and kills its own citizens.
Even if this analysis were accurate, I would feel much better if the administration had intentionally gone this route rather than accidentally blundering into it.
1 - US oil and gas companies make money as oil proces rise. The US is the largest producer in the world.
2 - China loses it's major source of oil and gas.
3 - Iran gets neutralized. It may not look like it now, but it will probably end up that way.